Ambrey threat assessments

Maritime risk management experts Ambrey has issued a threat circular dated 12 February which summarises the Houthi targeting profile. This includes the following points from their executive summary:

QUOTE

• The Houthis continue to target Israeli, American, and British-linked shipping in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. So far in February, four vessels have been targeted by the Houthis, all with these affiliations.

• As well as the under-appreciation of historic links of vessels, there is a misperception in parts of the industry that having certain affiliations will altogether negate an attack.

• The broadening of Houthi targeting of Israeli-affiliations evidences that the target profiles are not fixed, and assessments should be revisited with every warning and event.

UNQUOTE

Read the Ambrey Threat Circular ‘Houthi Targeting profile’ here >

This follows their threat alert dated 2 February 2024 which provides:

• Threats in the region have grown significantly, they are complex, and they are now over a wider area of operations.

• The situation poses a significant risk to life and the safety of vessels in the area.

• The Houthis have widened their targets and area of operations. An unprecedented international naval response has degraded their capabilities, but the Houthis have continued to attack shipping. As affiliated vessels reroute around the Cape of Good Hope, risk levels on other routes increase as weapon capability also improves.

• The international military presence, though significant, cannot ensure safe passage of the region. All available mitigation measures should be evaluated and considered.

• Iran has become more assertive in its response to U.S. sanctions, widened its area of operations, and acted in support of the Houthis. Reach into the wider region must be considered.

• Over the past decade, the suppression of piracy has led to the reduction of designated threat areas in the region. Somali pirates have now acted in international waters beyond the Indian Ocean Listed Area, where security provision has been limited, up until now.

• Security Risk Management companies must adapt their service levels to provide a comprehensive suite of services to support international shipping.

Read the Ambrey Threat Alert ‘Red Sea, Gulf of Aden, Arabian Sea, Gulf of Oman and Indian Ocean’ here >

This is further to threat alert issued by Ambrey on 15 January 2024 where they have assessed the threats to shipping and established risk levels based on affiliations.

QUOTE:

First tier: Israel. The Houthis have targeted Israel-affiliated shipping since the 19th of November 2023 as part of its response to the Israel-Gaza conflict. Ambrey assesses that the risk to merchant shipping affiliated through flag, ownership, operatorship, management, and trade is heightened.

Second tier: The US, and the UK. Ambrey assesses that the risk to merchant shipping affiliated through flag, ownership, operatorship, management, and trade is heightened. The US and UK merchant shipping was assessed to be at heightened risk following their strikes on Houthi military targets beginning 23:30 UTC 11th January 2024.

Third tier: Australia, Bahrain, Canada, and the Netherlands. Following the US and UK strikes on Houthi military targets, the US and UK issued statements that associated these States with the action. It is assessed that merchant shipping affiliated directly through flag, ownership, operatorship, or management could be at heightened risk.

Fourth tier: Denmark, Germany, New Zealand, and the Republic of Korea. Also following the US and US strikes on Houthi military targets, on the 11th of January a Joint Statement was issued with these countries. It is also assessed that merchant shipping affiliated directly through flag, ownership, operatorship, or management could be at heightened risk.

At this time, those States participating in Operation Prosperity Guardian were not assessed to be at heightened risk.

Industry associations’ guidance

On 23 February, INTERTANKO issued an update that advised at that time, the total number of attacks to vessels was up to 59, with 42 ships known to have been directly targeted and 16 being hit, with tankers making up just over 20% of all ships targeted.

They further advise that they met with the new Combined Maritime Forces commander, who stated:

• that all the ships targeted recently were using AIS and all but one of the ships attacked by the Houthi could be linked to Israel, UK or US in some way.

• operation ‘Poseidon Archer’, which is a mission aimed to degrade the operations of the Houthis, has fired 140 missiles (both surface to air and air to air) at drones and missiles, with a total of 277 munitions dropped in Yemen on various Houthi sites.

• No expectation of any stop until a ceasefire, but that the Houthis were very clear that once a ceasefire occurred, then they would stop.

On 16 February, INTERTANKO issued an update that advised outlook remains unchanged and that all ships should continue to follow BMP 5. On 2 February they advised:

• multiple attacks by Houthis using anti-ship ballistic missiles (ASBM), anti-ship cruise missiles (ASCM), unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV), unmanned surface vehicles (USV) and small arms from skiffs have been recorded.

• additionally, several pirate action groups (PAG) have been seen operating at great distance from Somalia.

• Naval operations have also conducted defensive strikes against Houthi missile sites ashore and multiple missiles and drones have been intercepted by US, UK and French naval ships.

• French naval vessels have provided close escorting of certain ships which coincide with their national interests. However, no convoys are operating and there is no intent to start such operations.

• It is quite clear that the threat to shipping continues and, whilst the Houthi state that they will only target those with Israeli, U.S. or UK interests, in practice, the targeting is much wider. Industry will release new guidance shortly.

• For piracy, PAGs have been seen to be operating at very great distances up to 650NM from Somalia and have attacked both merchant ships as well as hijacking dhows.

On 5 February, shipping associations BIMCO, ICS, CLIA, IMCA, INTERCARGO, INTERTANKO and OCIMF updated their security guidance applicable to navigating in the Southern Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.

The guidance emphasises the importance of conducting a thorough ship and voyage-specific threat and risk assessment considering any additional advice from the ship’s flag state before passing through the area in question. The full guidance is available here >

With the threat of attack by UAVs (drones), a reminder that OCIMF has issued a guide to its members ‘Loitering Munitions – the Threat to Merchant Ships’ which can be found here.

Shipping associations BIMCO, ICS, CLIA, IMCA, INTERCARGO, INTERTANKO and OCIMF have come together to publish security guidance applicable to navigating in the Southern Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.

The guidance emphasises the importance of conducting a thorough ship and voyage-specific threat and risk assessment considering any additional advice from the ship’s flag state before passing through the area in question. The full guidance is available here >

The International Bargaining Forum (IBF) agreed to designate the southern section of the Red Sea and the Strait as a High Risk Area with effect from 22 December 2023: https://www.itfseafarers.org/en/news/ibf-implement-high-risk-area-red-sea

Flag State Advisories

United States

MSCI Advisory 2024-001: ‘Southern Red Sea, Bab el Mandeb Strait, Gulf of Aden, Northwestern Indian Ocean, Somali Basin, Arabian Sea, Gulf of Oman, Strait of Hormuz, and Persian Gulf-Threats to Commercial Vessels’

There are currently no active MARAD MSCI Alerts.

Liberia

Liberia Flag State marine security advisory of `2 February 2024: MARINE SECURITY ADVISORY 092023_Rev.5.pdf (liscr.com)

Malta

Merchant Shipping Notice 187 of 13 February 2024: https://www.transport.gov.mt/include/filestreaming.asp?fileid=9473

Merchant Shipping Notice 186 of 12 January 2024: https://www.transport.gov.mt/include/filestreaming.asp?fileid=9395

Norway

Norwegian Maritime Authority strongly advise all Norwegian flagged vessels not to transit trough the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, if possible, at present time.

Last updated 17 January 2024: https://www.sdir.no/en/shipping/accidents-and-safety/sikkerhet/isps—maritime-security/marsec-security-level/gulf-of-aden-bab-el-mandeb-red-sea/

Marshall Islands

Ship Security Advisory 01-24 of 17 January 2024: https://www.register-iri.com/wp-content/uploads/SSA-2024-01.pdf

Panama

MMN-03/2024 – ‘YEMEN, RED SEA, GULF OF ADEN AND PERSIAN AND THEIR APPROACHES’ of 2- February 2024: https://panamashipregistry.com/marine-notices/yemen-red-sea-gulf-of-aden-and-persian-and-their-approaches/https://panamashipregistry.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/MMN-09-2023-RED-SEA-29-11-2023.pdf

Military Presence

In December 2023, the United States announced the launch of Operation Prosperity Guardian to protect commercial shipping in the Red Sea following the recent attacks on merchant vessels by the Iran-backed Yemeni Houthis.

On 12 January, United States forces launched Operation Poseidon Archer, in coordination with the United Kingdom, and support from Australia, Canada, the Netherlands, and Bahrain. Strikes on Houthi military targets in Yemen were conducted in response to the continued attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea.

Combined Maritime Forces (CMF) Guidance for Shipping Navigating the Southern Red Sea (SRS) was issued om 23 December 2023 and can be read here.

The guidance note advises:

• Operation PROSPERITY GUARDIAN has now commenced in the SRS, which is described as a “presence and deterrence mission in support of the Freedom of Navigation, that will be conducted by an international Naval force under CMF, commanded by Combined Task Force 153.”

• Vessels transiting the Southern Red Sea should note a significant increase in the number of coalition warships and aircraft operating in the area as part of this operation.

• A review of BMP5 and the extant MSTC guidance for southern Red Sea will be conducted with industry.

Joint War Committee

The Joint War Committee issued JWLA-32 which amends the Listed Area of Indian Ocean, GoA and Red Sea as follows:

The waters enclosed by the following boundaries:

1. a) on the northwest, by the Red Sea, south of Latitude 18°N

2. b) on the northeast, from the Yemen border at 16°38.5’N, 53°6.5’E to high seas point 14°55’N, 53°50’E

3. c) on the east, by a line from high seas point 14°55’N, 53°50’E to high seas point 10°48’N, 60°15’E, thence to high seas point 6°45’S, 48°45’E

4. d) and on the southwest, by the Somalia border at 1°40’S, 41°34’E, to high seas point 6°45’S, 48°45’E

excepting coastal waters of adjoining territories up to 12 nautical miles offshore unless otherwise provided.

JWLA-32 can be read here >

Maritime security resources

• Security advice can be downloaded from the shipping industry’s Maritime Global Security website >

• The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) website maintains a summary of the latest incidents in the region >

• Similarly, as list of attacks is maintained by the Maritime Security Centre Horn of Africa: LATEST NEWS, BULLETINS AND INFORMATION OF INTEREST FOR SEAFARERS (mschoa.org)